Memory crisis expected to last until 2031, supply already allocated for 2026
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The only problem is the current most used AAA game engine Unreal Engine 5. It is not very good for low end hardware, as the system and developers struggle to optimize it. Even the best devs struggle. But they can’t afford to require high end or just mid PCs. Handhelds become quite popular now. Devs want to make games run on Switch 2, which is beneficial as whole because it has to run under constraints of the system and environment.
Given that RAM prices may stay this expensive, my prediction is that developers absolutely have to make their games run on less powerful hardware (and on 16gb). I wonder how the Steam Machine (PC from Valve) will impact developers focus on Steam Deck.
It would be great if devs just target the steam deck and then let you improve graphics for better hardware.
Like, turn up ray tracing and other effects on the steam machine. Let my steamdeck be a potato.
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It would be great if devs just target the steam deck and then let you improve graphics for better hardware.
Like, turn up ray tracing and other effects on the steam machine. Let my steamdeck be a potato.
Unfortunately the reality is, that developers don’t have all time of the world. They have deadlines to meet and focus on the thing that is in their mind the most important at the moment. For AAA it often means high quality textures and advanced tech like RayTracing, while they have less time to optimize it for weak hardware. On the other side some devs optimize for low hardware and then they don’t get the attention in the media they want to have, by having the greatest and biggest graphics. So they start optimizing later if the game is not too buggy and it is a success, so they get the greenlight to do more work on it.
Off course I simplify and it depends on the teams and publishers and so on. The point I am making is, that its not as easy a decision as we think or hope it would be. Especially because publishers force some decisions, regardless of what the developers or gamers want to have or need.
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A 5 year DRAM shortage is pretty hard to imagine. I have to suspect that’s a projection that assumes no AI bubble popping (which given how insanely over-leveraged basically every company involved in the bubble is, its inevitable. They’re literally spending more building these datacenters than they can ever dream of recouping once built!) The last DRAM shortage (around 2017-2019 by memory) was only really bad for about a year or so, getting gradually better until it became an absolute glut of DRAM supply that lasted until…well about 3 months ago. $60 per terabyte of SSD storage was glorious, and hopefully I can afford to benefit from the next DRAM glut in 2-5 years
I’m genuinely putting money aside for when the AI bubble pops so I can hopefully hoover up some cheap computer parts lol
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What I heard on the ground floor from various system integrators, components manufacturers, and other companies, is memory supply has been tied up for all of 2026, and that shortages could last as long as until 2031.
Sure it’s scuttlebutt but wouldn’t surprise me as being true.
Article doesnt mention China?
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Surveillance isn’t the reason, it’s a larger and more consistent profit margin.
And yet, we pay for most of it with our PII. In other words, we’re getting doxxed big time with these surveillance services.
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The AI bubble will pop long before then, and everyone will have more RAM and GPUs than they know what to do with.
AI is not the bubble. The USD and bonds that are covered thereof are the bubble, and it had burst recently.
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I’m genuinely putting money aside for when the AI bubble pops so I can hopefully hoover up some cheap computer parts lol
I keep a separate savings account for things like that. I just call it “upgrade” in my banking app. Its money specifically earmarked for any kind of entirely-optional big purchases, like computer upgrades, server upgrades, home theatre upgrades, etc. I also have one earmarked for replacing my current cars and one for vacations, plus of course my emergency fund
The only problem with this approach is I tend to hoard my money and want to see my savings account go up, so I really don’t end up spending as much as I could on myself. Like I have an entire computer’s worth in the “upgrade” account right now
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This, from Mark Moss: https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=ttMDQB0TJJc
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They’ll sell it.
I don’t think they’ll sell their RAM, as the RAM fabs from China will be strictly used for their tech. We won’t get squat, because we squandered when Crucial shut down their consumer production.
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They’re making one already, because cloud gaming is the future of gaming. It’s literally 1984 on that front.
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To spell this out clearly, the reason RAM has quadrupled in price is that a huge quantity of RAM that hasn’t been produced yet has been bought with money that doesn’t exist to populate GPUs that also haven’t been produced to go in datacenters that haven’t been built powered by infrastructure that may never exist to meet a demand that doesn’t exist at all to make profit margins that mathematically can’t exist while economists talk about this thing they call the “rational markets hypothesis”.
This meme is pretty new, like from the future, but it checks out.
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This meme is pretty new, like from the future, but it checks out.
Okay I’m old is this a actually newer meme or was it a joke to post the reply?
It does sound familiar (like close to a movie line) but also sounds accurate. If the bubble pops so much memory available cheaper.
Mean I’m only 1 year into my PC build but I tend to do them every 4 years or so…crap that’s only 5 years from now I thought it was longer, but still lot closer than I thought from first read. Least at this age time goes by quickly, for better or worse heh.
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Okay I’m old is this a actually newer meme or was it a joke to post the reply?
It does sound familiar (like close to a movie line) but also sounds accurate. If the bubble pops so much memory available cheaper.
Mean I’m only 1 year into my PC build but I tend to do them every 4 years or so…crap that’s only 5 years from now I thought it was longer, but still lot closer than I thought from first read. Least at this age time goes by quickly, for better or worse heh.
It’s not an original comment.
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And yet, we pay for most of it with our PII. In other words, we’re getting doxxed big time with these surveillance services.
Why’d you remove your upvote on your own comment?
Edit: wtheck you do this on all your comments.
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What I heard on the ground floor from various system integrators, components manufacturers, and other companies, is memory supply has been tied up for all of 2026, and that shortages could last as long as until 2031.
Sure it’s scuttlebutt but wouldn’t surprise me as being true.
eli5 why doesn’t someone produce ram and refuse to sell to AI companies and make a bloody fortune?
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eli5 why doesn’t someone produce ram and refuse to sell to AI companies and make a bloody fortune?
Because the AI companies will just offer to buy at a higher price.
If you refuse to sell to AI companies you will make a small fortune yes. If you sell to the highest bidder you’ll make a larger fortune.
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Why’d you remove your upvote on your own comment?
Edit: wtheck you do this on all your comments.
That’s for unbiased upvote and downvote totals. I did this with all my comments, though I periodically check to see if I missed any. I decided to get that done one day, and I never looked back.
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You are not wrong about the reallocation part. However, if you see the actions from micron (fuck you micron BTW), they are going all in and having a shit storm in PR on the consumer side. If they are taking these risks without proper assurances, then they are utterly deranged
I’m not sure there’s a way to have proper assurances for such vast sums of silicon and money. You’re going with the flow of the speculation at that point. If it pops, their best hope is for bailouts to save them (not unrealistic, but their interlocutors will then be governments, not corporations).
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You are not wrong about the reallocation part. However, if you see the actions from micron (fuck you micron BTW), they are going all in and having a shit storm in PR on the consumer side. If they are taking these risks without proper assurances, then they are utterly deranged
Promises of buying only work if the buyer still exists at the time you produce the goods.
Besides, I’m pretty sure that the main buyers type on the consumer side are PC and phone makers. So they could go back there almost unharmed. -
The solution is surprisingly simple:
“Sorry, I can’t use your online services. My electronics died. Oh well.”
️“No worries! We just launched Chat-Phone: a cellphone totally connected to ChatGPT. It has almost no capability by itself: poor CPU, min RAM, min/no storage, etc. But it is always connected to ChatGPT!
BTW: because of RAM shortage, we are the only smartphone maker in the world now!”
The phone is 50$, but you need the premium subscription for it to work…
