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  3. The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*.

The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*.

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  • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

    RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

    The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

    Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
    Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
    Charlie Stross
    wrote last edited by
    #2

    I just noticed I have 18Tb of storage plugged into my desktop (a laptop with its own 2Tb of built-in SSD) and WTF am I doing with it all?!?

    @blogdiva

    Hugo MillsD OblomovO BitHive :python:B Mark DennehyM D 8 Replies Last reply
    0
    • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

      I just noticed I have 18Tb of storage plugged into my desktop (a laptop with its own 2Tb of built-in SSD) and WTF am I doing with it all?!?

      @blogdiva

      Hugo MillsD This user is from outside of this forum
      Hugo MillsD This user is from outside of this forum
      Hugo Mills
      wrote last edited by
      #3

      @cstross @blogdiva Cat pictures. It's usually cat pictures. Have you checked Menhit's home directory?

      DressToKILTD 1 Reply Last reply
      0
      • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

        RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

        The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

        ThadT This user is from outside of this forum
        ThadT This user is from outside of this forum
        Thad
        wrote last edited by
        #4

        @cstross There's also the "hardware still works fine but software goes planned-obsolescence" route, but Microsoft just did that a few months ago and it'll be awhile before they can get away with doing it again.

        1 Reply Last reply
        0
        • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

          RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

          The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

          Kierkegaanks regretfullyK This user is from outside of this forum
          Kierkegaanks regretfullyK This user is from outside of this forum
          Kierkegaanks regretfully
          wrote last edited by
          #5

          @cstross (unless it kills the industry)

          Charlie StrossC 1 Reply Last reply
          0
          • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

            RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

            The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

            GraydonG This user is from outside of this forum
            GraydonG This user is from outside of this forum
            Graydon
            wrote last edited by
            #6

            @cstross I am willing to entertain the "we're going to get rid of consumer computer hardware that isn't rented" scenario.

            In the 1970s, there was a thriving market for making, selling, and applying custom/aftermarket car parts. The entire auto industry systematically murdered it by successively moving cars into a space where you couldn't do that. It's not like we don't know a large market can't be expunged.

            The incumbents have a strong general incentive to keep people from having options.

            furicleF S DressToKILTD 3 Replies Last reply
            0
            • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

              RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

              The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

              HP van BraamH This user is from outside of this forum
              HP van BraamH This user is from outside of this forum
              HP van Braam
              wrote last edited by
              #7

              @cstross Yeah, I recently came to a similar conclusion.

              I had replaced the fans in my 4 year old laptop and now it is ... just fine. Like I'm actually no longer even considering replacing it.

              Now I did buy a ridiculous laptop 4 years ago, but still.

              I wonder how many people could extend the life if their machines by just cleaning out the dust/replacing the fans.

              MythicNation :xbox:M 1 Reply Last reply
              0
              • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

                I just noticed I have 18Tb of storage plugged into my desktop (a laptop with its own 2Tb of built-in SSD) and WTF am I doing with it all?!?

                @blogdiva

                OblomovO This user is from outside of this forum
                OblomovO This user is from outside of this forum
                Oblomov
                wrote last edited by
                #8

                @cstross @blogdiva I have such large storage, where I keep all my audio and film and game installer backups because fuck streaming.

                Jack William BellJ 1 Reply Last reply
                0
                • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

                  I just noticed I have 18Tb of storage plugged into my desktop (a laptop with its own 2Tb of built-in SSD) and WTF am I doing with it all?!?

                  @blogdiva

                  BitHive :python:B This user is from outside of this forum
                  BitHive :python:B This user is from outside of this forum
                  BitHive :python:
                  wrote last edited by
                  #9

                  @cstross /dev/random > randomnes_store_for_later_use.txt

                  Jack William BellJ 1 Reply Last reply
                  0
                  • Kierkegaanks regretfullyK Kierkegaanks regretfully

                    @cstross (unless it kills the industry)

                    Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
                    Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
                    Charlie Stross
                    wrote last edited by
                    #10

                    @Kierkegaanks It probably *will* kill the industry. A lot of smaller VARs will go out of business, bigger ones will see sales stagnate and be forced to put up prices b/c the data center futures bids are ramping prices, then the bubble will burst and we're in Great Depression 2.0. Not much will come through that intact.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    0
                    • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

                      I just noticed I have 18Tb of storage plugged into my desktop (a laptop with its own 2Tb of built-in SSD) and WTF am I doing with it all?!?

                      @blogdiva

                      Mark DennehyM This user is from outside of this forum
                      Mark DennehyM This user is from outside of this forum
                      Mark Dennehy
                      wrote last edited by
                      #11

                      @cstross @blogdiva Tell me you have an oversized porn library without telling me you have an oversized porn library 😄

                      Charlie StrossC 1 Reply Last reply
                      0
                      • Mark DennehyM Mark Dennehy

                        @cstross @blogdiva Tell me you have an oversized porn library without telling me you have an oversized porn library 😄

                        Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
                        Charlie StrossC This user is from outside of this forum
                        Charlie Stross
                        wrote last edited by
                        #12

                        @markdennehy @blogdiva Actually most of that storage is redundant backup drives 🙂

                        Mark DennehyM 1 Reply Last reply
                        0
                        • GraydonG Graydon

                          @cstross I am willing to entertain the "we're going to get rid of consumer computer hardware that isn't rented" scenario.

                          In the 1970s, there was a thriving market for making, selling, and applying custom/aftermarket car parts. The entire auto industry systematically murdered it by successively moving cars into a space where you couldn't do that. It's not like we don't know a large market can't be expunged.

                          The incumbents have a strong general incentive to keep people from having options.

                          furicleF This user is from outside of this forum
                          furicleF This user is from outside of this forum
                          furicle
                          wrote last edited by
                          #13

                          @graydon @cstross that's not fair - there was no attempt to kill aftermarket parts, the aftermarket is thriving.

                          A poor comparison

                          ⊥ᵒᵚ Cᵸᵎᶺᵋᶫ∸ᵒᵘ ☑️F GraydonG 2 Replies Last reply
                          0
                          • BitHive :python:B BitHive :python:

                            @cstross /dev/random > randomnes_store_for_later_use.txt

                            Jack William BellJ This user is from outside of this forum
                            Jack William BellJ This user is from outside of this forum
                            Jack William Bell
                            wrote last edited by
                            #14

                            @bithive @cstross

                            I thought that went into /dev/null?

                            BitHive :python:B 1 Reply Last reply
                            0
                            • HP van BraamH HP van Braam

                              @cstross Yeah, I recently came to a similar conclusion.

                              I had replaced the fans in my 4 year old laptop and now it is ... just fine. Like I'm actually no longer even considering replacing it.

                              Now I did buy a ridiculous laptop 4 years ago, but still.

                              I wonder how many people could extend the life if their machines by just cleaning out the dust/replacing the fans.

                              MythicNation :xbox:M This user is from outside of this forum
                              MythicNation :xbox:M This user is from outside of this forum
                              MythicNation :xbox:
                              wrote last edited by
                              #15

                              @hp @cstross As I get older, I realize I want my computer to last more than 5 years minimum, with the pricing sky-rocketing. It seems insane for a computer with a dedicated graphics card.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              0
                              • OblomovO Oblomov

                                @cstross @blogdiva I have such large storage, where I keep all my audio and film and game installer backups because fuck streaming.

                                Jack William BellJ This user is from outside of this forum
                                Jack William BellJ This user is from outside of this forum
                                Jack William Bell
                                wrote last edited by
                                #16

                                @oblomov @cstross @blogdiva

                                Same. Fuck streaming.

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                0
                                • furicleF furicle

                                  @graydon @cstross that's not fair - there was no attempt to kill aftermarket parts, the aftermarket is thriving.

                                  A poor comparison

                                  ⊥ᵒᵚ Cᵸᵎᶺᵋᶫ∸ᵒᵘ ☑️F This user is from outside of this forum
                                  ⊥ᵒᵚ Cᵸᵎᶺᵋᶫ∸ᵒᵘ ☑️F This user is from outside of this forum
                                  ⊥ᵒᵚ Cᵸᵎᶺᵋᶫ∸ᵒᵘ ☑️
                                  wrote last edited by
                                  #17

                                  @furicle @graydon @cstross indeed. My car is in the shop *right now* having 3rd party parking sensors added.

                                  Jernej Simončič �J 1 Reply Last reply
                                  0
                                  • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

                                    @markdennehy @blogdiva Actually most of that storage is redundant backup drives 🙂

                                    Mark DennehyM This user is from outside of this forum
                                    Mark DennehyM This user is from outside of this forum
                                    Mark Dennehy
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #18

                                    @cstross @blogdiva A redundantly backed up porn archive, you say? 😜

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    0
                                    • Charlie StrossC Charlie Stross

                                      RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

                                      The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

                                      mbpazM This user is from outside of this forum
                                      mbpazM This user is from outside of this forum
                                      mbpaz
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #19

                                      @cstross ...which only works for as long as nobody else can start producing alternative hardware.

                                      And, come on: decades-old DDR3 is barely 5 times slower than modern DDR5. For most practical uses, cheap and somewhat slower than top-end memory would be perfectly fine.

                                      an actual busR 1 Reply Last reply
                                      0
                                      • Jack William BellJ Jack William Bell

                                        @bithive @cstross

                                        I thought that went into /dev/null?

                                        BitHive :python:B This user is from outside of this forum
                                        BitHive :python:B This user is from outside of this forum
                                        BitHive :python:
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #20

                                        @jackwilliambell @cstross you could just /dev/random > /dev/null

                                        But if we talk TB you might want to switch to a managed service like
                                        https://devnull-as-a-service.com/

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        0
                                        • furicleF furicle

                                          @graydon @cstross that's not fair - there was no attempt to kill aftermarket parts, the aftermarket is thriving.

                                          A poor comparison

                                          GraydonG This user is from outside of this forum
                                          GraydonG This user is from outside of this forum
                                          Graydon
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #21

                                          @furicle @cstross It is not what it was and a whole lot of effort has gone into, e.g. doing things with on board computers to prevent off-brand parts. (Not, in autos, as much as in heavy machinery including farm machinery.) "Right to repair" didn't start with small electronic gadgets.

                                          Or look at the cost of replacing a headlight; lots of effort has gone into making you buy the big assembly and not either a standard headlight or replacing a bulb.

                                          Charlie StrossC adamriceA furicleF The DoctorD Rob LandleyL 5 Replies Last reply
                                          0

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