In 2010, buying $BTC was like stumbling onto a winning lottery ticket in your recycling bin.'n'nGoing from $0.10 to $70,000 built trillion-dollar mythology.
-
In 2010, buying $BTC was like stumbling onto a winning lottery ticket in your recycling bin.
Going from $0.10 to $70,000 built trillion-dollar mythology. But math gets mean as assets mature. A 1000x move is easy when you start at lint. Going from $85,000 to $8,500,000 would require capital inflows bigger than the GDP of entire countries.
Now enter TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ. It’s a 3x leveraged ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100. If the index gains 1%, $TQQQ targets 3%. If it drops 1%, you take the full 3%. It even pays small dividends, which matter when compounding over years.
Over the past five years, $TQQQ has actually beaten $BTC on total return. Yes, even after crediting $BTC’s insane 2020–2021 rallies. Because those rallies were followed by 50–75% crashes that murdered long-term CAGR.
Look at 2025 YTD. $BTC is down 6.80%. $TQQQ is up 29.10%. Same macro, opposite outcomes.
And unlike $TQQQ, $BTC’s future upside keeps running into math and physics. Each halving reduces new supply, which is great for narratives but makes exponential growth harder because trillions in new capital have to materialize.
And there’s still the long-term wildcard: quantum computing potentially breaking current cryptography if the network doesn’t successfully upgrade in time. Meanwhile, $TQQQ’s engine is earnings, AI capex, cloud adoption, buybacks, and productivity growth—actual economic output.
Sounds risky—and it is—but here’s the twist. Despite being 3x leveraged, $TQQQ has shown lower realized volatility than $BTC for long stretches. Bitcoin often sits at 60–80% annualized volatility. $TQQQ lives closer to 45–65%. Plus, $BTC yields 0%. $TQQQ at least hands you a dividend while you wait.
Time horizons matter. A 25-year-old can survive a 70% drawdown. A retiree cannot. Sequence of returns decides lifestyles.
And no, this isn’t an endorsement of $TQQQ. Most investors shouldn’t touch it. Daily leverage resets can erode gains. A sideways market can still hurt you. A 30% Nasdaq drop can mean an 80% $TQQQ collapse. If you don’t understand compounding, volatility drag, and risk sizing, $TQQQ will turn your portfolio into abstract art.
But even with $TQQQ’s risks—and they’re very real—I still feel it’s better holding it long term than $BTC. That is, if you’re wild and crazy enough to do it.
-
In 2010, buying $BTC was like stumbling onto a winning lottery ticket in your recycling bin.
Going from $0.10 to $70,000 built trillion-dollar mythology. But math gets mean as assets mature. A 1000x move is easy when you start at lint. Going from $85,000 to $8,500,000 would require capital inflows bigger than the GDP of entire countries.
Now enter TQQQ, the ProShares UltraPro QQQ. It’s a 3x leveraged ETF tracking the Nasdaq-100. If the index gains 1%, $TQQQ targets 3%. If it drops 1%, you take the full 3%. It even pays small dividends, which matter when compounding over years.
Over the past five years, $TQQQ has actually beaten $BTC on total return. Yes, even after crediting $BTC’s insane 2020–2021 rallies. Because those rallies were followed by 50–75% crashes that murdered long-term CAGR.
Look at 2025 YTD. $BTC is down 6.80%. $TQQQ is up 29.10%. Same macro, opposite outcomes.
And unlike $TQQQ, $BTC’s future upside keeps running into math and physics. Each halving reduces new supply, which is great for narratives but makes exponential growth harder because trillions in new capital have to materialize.
And there’s still the long-term wildcard: quantum computing potentially breaking current cryptography if the network doesn’t successfully upgrade in time. Meanwhile, $TQQQ’s engine is earnings, AI capex, cloud adoption, buybacks, and productivity growth—actual economic output.
Sounds risky—and it is—but here’s the twist. Despite being 3x leveraged, $TQQQ has shown lower realized volatility than $BTC for long stretches. Bitcoin often sits at 60–80% annualized volatility. $TQQQ lives closer to 45–65%. Plus, $BTC yields 0%. $TQQQ at least hands you a dividend while you wait.
Time horizons matter. A 25-year-old can survive a 70% drawdown. A retiree cannot. Sequence of returns decides lifestyles.
And no, this isn’t an endorsement of $TQQQ. Most investors shouldn’t touch it. Daily leverage resets can erode gains. A sideways market can still hurt you. A 30% Nasdaq drop can mean an 80% $TQQQ collapse. If you don’t understand compounding, volatility drag, and risk sizing, $TQQQ will turn your portfolio into abstract art.
But even with $TQQQ’s risks—and they’re very real—I still feel it’s better holding it long term than $BTC. That is, if you’re wild and crazy enough to do it.
@atomicpoet
I was looking at the leveraged inverse trackers of equities like teslas a while back, and they seem like an interesting way to gamble. -
@atomicpoet
I was looking at the leveraged inverse trackers of equities like teslas a while back, and they seem like an interesting way to gamble.@xinit Play at your own risk.
