Wandering Adventure Party

Leapfrogging!

In May 2025, African countries imported a combined 1.57 GW of solar panels from China, an all time high. (Like adding three-fourths of the capacity of the Hoover Dam in one month.) The spike didn’t come from relatively affluent African countries like South Africa, but rather from nearly two dozen smaller nations.

Less developed countries, such as Chad, have imported enough solar panels to replace their country’s entire current power generation capacity."

Africa Is Buying a Record Number of Chinese Solar Panels

Energy-starved countries on the continent have reluctantly turned to coal and gas for decades. Cheap Chinese solar panels are now finally changing the calculus.

WIRED (www.wired.com)

"In 2024, Pakistan installed about 15 Gigawatts of solar panels; for context, the country’s total peak electricity demand is about 30 Gigawatts.

Households put so many panels on their rooftops that Pakistani cities now look visibly different on satellite maps."

Africa Is Buying a Record Number of Chinese Solar Panels

Energy-starved countries on the continent have reluctantly turned to coal and gas for decades. Cheap Chinese solar panels are now finally changing the calculus.

WIRED (www.wired.com)

These countries are leapfrogging "developed" countries which have painted themselves into a fossil fueled corner.

Pakistan has, quietly and without subsidies, become the sixth-largest solar market in the world (see a few posts up in this thread). And now,

"Pakistan plans to ask Qatar to delay delivery of liquefied natural gas supply over the next five years as the South Asian country grapples with weak demand and mounting import costs."

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

(www.bloomberg.com)

"In yet another knee-jerk reaction to curb #RenewableEnergy growth through #solar net metering amid high grid electricity costs, [#Pakistan's] government on Thursday reduced the buyback rate by two-thirds to Rs10 per unit and scrapped net billing.

The decision [is] applicable to new net-metering consumers."

Solar users face higher costs as policy revised

ECC slashes solar net-metering buyback rate by almost two-thirds, ends net billing; under new framework, consumers to sell at Rs10, buy at Rs42-48 per unit.

DAWN.COM (www.dawn.com)

"The pattern is that Western energy forecasters are continually surprised by how much energy people in developing countries will consume.

The world’s growing middle class isn’t waiting for permission to buy air conditioners. The task now is to make sure that the energy that powers them is clean — and that means having more than enough solar panels for Lahore as well as Copenhagen."

A surprise solar boom reveals a fatal flaw in our climate change projections

Energy forecasts keep underestimating the demand for power in developing countries of the Global South.

Vox (www.vox.com)

"#Pakistan has gone from an inconsequential solar market to the sixth-largest in the world.

[It] is the latest sign that energy authorities are underestimating how much clean power the world demands — and that energy models can suffer from the same biases as their makers. Failing to grasp how much energy is wanted, and the things people in places like Pakistan might be willing to do to get it, leaves the world unprepared to build, fund, and plan for a cleaner future."

A surprise solar boom reveals a fatal flaw in our climate change projections

Energy forecasts keep underestimating the demand for power in developing countries of the Global South.

Vox (www.vox.com)

If you include the value of
"12 billion tons of embodied raw material equivalents, 822 million hectares of embodied land, 21 exajoules of embodied energy, and 188 million person-years of embodied labour, [the transfer is] worth $10.8 trillion in Northern prices."
That's for 2015 alone.

ScienceDirect

(www.sciencedirect.com)

"Economists Samir Amin and Arghiri Emmanuel described this as a “hidden transfer of value” from the South, which sustains high levels of income and consumption in the North. The drain takes place subtly and almost invisibly, without the overt violence of colonial occupation and therefore without provoking protest and moral outrage.

Today, the global North drains from the South commodities worth $2.2 trillion per year, in Northern prices."

Rich countries drained $152tn from the global South since 1960

Imperialism never ended, it just changed form.

Al Jazeera (www.aljazeera.com)

@urlyman pointed me to this podcast with Fadhel Kaboub that starts with:

“If you divide the world into rich and poor countries – global north and global south – and you net out *all* the global financial transactions – meaning you include exports, imports, interest payments, debt payments, charity, foreign direct investment, including illicit transactions – you find that the global north takes $2 trillion a year from the global south.”

$2 tn a year.

Decolonise to Decarbonise | Fadhel Kaboub

The Economics of Modern Colonialism

(www.planetcritical.com)

The world should be happy that Pakistan has engaged in a transition to #CleanEnergy (almost entirely without subsidies, it should be added).

This is the much vaunted free market at work, man.

But now the privatised grid companies are wringing their hands and it would surprise no one if the IMF imposes further terms and conditions that are unlikely to benefit Pakistan. Think energy austerity.

Hypocrites.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

(www.bloomberg.com)

Now, there is so much solar in #Pakistan, and such a wholesale abandonment of the expensive grid, that there's talk of “risk of a utility death spiral.”

“Pakistan’s [now privatised] distribution companies are losing every day as solar becomes attractive.”

But.
"The IMF has said retaining demand should be a key objective of reforms."

Seems to be the terms and conditions of the IMF loan was responsible for this "crisis".

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

(www.bloomberg.com)

What happened:
In 2021, Pakistan needed a loan.
The IMF offered a loan, but - as with many IMF loans - it came with strings attached.

"Pakistan and the IMF have agreed to restore energy sector viability as part of the bailout program, which includes cost cuts and privatization of state-owned power distribution companies."

And subsidies had to be done away with.

Predictably, electricity prices rose steeply. People started turning to solar PV.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

(www.bloomberg.com)

Surprise Solar Boom in #Pakistan Helps Millions, But Harms Grid

"For corn grower, Mohammad Murtaza, installing panels has enabled him to slash his power bill by switching irrigation pumps from diesel or pricey electricity from the grid. Farmers like him are the latest to join the #solar craze, following households and factories, in a country where power prices for some have tripled since 2021 as the government cut subsidies to meet IMF loan requirements."

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

(www.bloomberg.com)