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  3. Mark Carney’s first budget projects $78B deficit, program and civil service cuts

Mark Carney’s first budget projects $78B deficit, program and civil service cuts

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  • P patatas@sh.itjust.works

    Great ok so we at least agree that issuing currency is not the fiscal equivalent of drinking bleach, and that there are good and bad reasons to do it.

    M This user is from outside of this forum
    M This user is from outside of this forum
    MyBrainHurts
    wrote on last edited by mybrainhurts@piefed.ca
    #54

    Dollars are not scarce items; the government can issue currency essentially at will.

    Edit: You CAN drink a small amount of bleach. Just like you CAN print money during a generational event.

    A small amount of bleach will burn a bit. A small amount of printing money caused inflation that we also haven’t seen in decades. It hurts families now but that’s the price we paid to help during covid.

    P 1 Reply Last reply
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    • R Rentlar

      The theme seems to be “reduce operating spending, increase capital spending”. We’ll see how that will blow over with the opposition.

      circav@lemmy.caC This user is from outside of this forum
      circav@lemmy.caC This user is from outside of this forum
      circav@lemmy.ca
      wrote on last edited by
      #55

      This budget is ass.

      1 Reply Last reply
      1
      • R Rentlar

        I mean, that’s how a lot of Canadian politics works… “passed because no one really hated it”…

        N This user is from outside of this forum
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        nouveau_burnswick@lemmy.world
        wrote on last edited by
        #56

        That’s how all politics works. You can’t make everyone happy, so you just try to make every less unhappy.

        1 Reply Last reply
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        • M MyBrainHurts

          Which services are you thinking of?

          The major thing I’ve seen is reducing the number of public sector employees back to 2020 levels, which doesn’t seem wild. (I haven’t seen a good explanation of why we needed to increase the public sector by 20% since then, nor of what we got out of that. If you have anything, I’d love to read it!) Throw in some reductions of outside consultants etc…

          There are undoubtedly some programs getting cut. But given we’re teetering on the edge of an adversary induced recession, that doesn’t seem unsreasonable.

          N This user is from outside of this forum
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          nouveau_burnswick@lemmy.world
          wrote on last edited by
          #57

          Generally speaking, reducing public servants increases consultancy requirements, not reduces.

          If you don’t have someone with the capabilites/skills/corporate knowledge/experince/capacity to do X thing on the payroll, then you need to hire a consultant to do it.

          Now obviously I couldn’t tell you what ministry/department/etc needs, but let’s take the Alto contract as an isolated example.

          We don’t have any rail expertise in government at all, so we need to consult it in, and we pay a premium for that. In the lens of a single rail project, that makes a a lot of sense, we aren’t paying payroll and maintaining expertise for a once in a generation project.

          The alternative is having something like a national rail crown corp or department, like SNCF in France. Now all the experience is at the national level whenever you need it. SNCF has a lot more staff, planning, and engineering capacity than it requires; so that gets farmed out to regions and municipalities to help them with their rail/metro/tram projects. This is instead of each of them needing consultants, driving up the costs for municipal governments/capital projects.

          In this manner increased federal spending becomes an accelerant for other levels of government and reduces regional and municipal spending, and thus the overall tax burden for everyone.

          So if we had something like SNCF then the Alto project might cost a little more, but the Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, Toronto, and Montréal recent/ongoing lines would be cheaper; plus medium cities like Victoria, Winnipeg, Québec City, and Halifax would have rail projects in their reach; and smaller cities like Red Deer, Regina, Thunder Bay, Kingston, Trois Rivières, and Fredericton would have tram projects in their reach.

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          • M MyBrainHurts

            Again, that’s a fine and valid critique of the budget.

            The fundamental flaw is equating corporate efficiency with public effectiveness…

            This position however, does not seem valid when the budget is putting in more than it removes from actual public services, 51 billion v 13.

            K This user is from outside of this forum
            K This user is from outside of this forum
            Kindness is Punk
            wrote on last edited by
            #58

            That part wasn’t a critique of the budget, it was a critique of your pitch for efficiency. You pivoted the discussion, I followed.

            M 1 Reply Last reply
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            • M MyBrainHurts

              Dollars are not scarce items; the government can issue currency essentially at will.

              Edit: You CAN drink a small amount of bleach. Just like you CAN print money during a generational event.

              A small amount of bleach will burn a bit. A small amount of printing money caused inflation that we also haven’t seen in decades. It hurts families now but that’s the price we paid to help during covid.

              P This user is from outside of this forum
              P This user is from outside of this forum
              patatas@sh.itjust.works
              wrote on last edited by
              #59

              Taxes, then, are disinflationary, right? Which is why we need to tax the rich especially

              M 1 Reply Last reply
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              • M MyBrainHurts

                removing the carbon cap saying that investments in several sectors would reduce the emissions anyway. A lot of wishful thinking on the budget text, or on the worst case mental gymnastics malice.

                A lot of this is through keeping and raising a carbon tax. That makes companies find the most efficient ways to reduce their footprints, rather than the government mandating it for each group. This is the approach favoured by most serious economists and think groups about reducing emissions quickly.

                without details what kind of investment they are putting money in

                You can look at the “nation building” projects, which include a massive wind farm (green as hell) and a nuclear plant (fairly clean, significantly better than say, oil or gas.)

                K This user is from outside of this forum
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                kent_eh@lemmy.ca
                wrote on last edited by
                #60

                That makes companies find the most efficient ways to reduce their footprints, rather than the government mandating it for each group. This is the approach favoured by most serious economists

                And it is the approach Carney favored in his book (which was written several years before he decided to run for office)

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                • K kent_eh@lemmy.ca

                  That makes companies find the most efficient ways to reduce their footprints, rather than the government mandating it for each group. This is the approach favoured by most serious economists

                  And it is the approach Carney favored in his book (which was written several years before he decided to run for office)

                  M This user is from outside of this forum
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                  MyBrainHurts
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #61

                  Not at all surprised to hear that! (The book is sitting on my shelf, unread and judging me.)

                  1 Reply Last reply
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                  • P patatas@sh.itjust.works

                    Taxes, then, are disinflationary, right? Which is why we need to tax the rich especially

                    M This user is from outside of this forum
                    M This user is from outside of this forum
                    MyBrainHurts
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #62

                    No, that’s not at all how that works.

                    At all.

                    P 1 Reply Last reply
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                    • K Kindness is Punk

                      That part wasn’t a critique of the budget, it was a critique of your pitch for efficiency. You pivoted the discussion, I followed.

                      M This user is from outside of this forum
                      M This user is from outside of this forum
                      MyBrainHurts
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #63

                      Maybe re-read what you reaponded to?

                      It’s pretty nonsensical to claim that because you’re providing a public good you can’t do so more effectively.

                      K 1 Reply Last reply
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                      • N nouveau_burnswick@lemmy.world

                        Generally speaking, reducing public servants increases consultancy requirements, not reduces.

                        If you don’t have someone with the capabilites/skills/corporate knowledge/experince/capacity to do X thing on the payroll, then you need to hire a consultant to do it.

                        Now obviously I couldn’t tell you what ministry/department/etc needs, but let’s take the Alto contract as an isolated example.

                        We don’t have any rail expertise in government at all, so we need to consult it in, and we pay a premium for that. In the lens of a single rail project, that makes a a lot of sense, we aren’t paying payroll and maintaining expertise for a once in a generation project.

                        The alternative is having something like a national rail crown corp or department, like SNCF in France. Now all the experience is at the national level whenever you need it. SNCF has a lot more staff, planning, and engineering capacity than it requires; so that gets farmed out to regions and municipalities to help them with their rail/metro/tram projects. This is instead of each of them needing consultants, driving up the costs for municipal governments/capital projects.

                        In this manner increased federal spending becomes an accelerant for other levels of government and reduces regional and municipal spending, and thus the overall tax burden for everyone.

                        So if we had something like SNCF then the Alto project might cost a little more, but the Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Ottawa, Toronto, and Montréal recent/ongoing lines would be cheaper; plus medium cities like Victoria, Winnipeg, Québec City, and Halifax would have rail projects in their reach; and smaller cities like Red Deer, Regina, Thunder Bay, Kingston, Trois Rivières, and Fredericton would have tram projects in their reach.

                        M This user is from outside of this forum
                        M This user is from outside of this forum
                        MyBrainHurts
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #64

                        It’s not like we’d have rail experts on the public payroll just sitting around.

                        And one of the mandates is to reduce consultancies (in large part because there’s been a lucrative pipeline of folks going through the public service, retiring, and then acting as consultants at a much inflated wage.)

                        Are all consultancies unnecessary? Absolutely not! But have all of them been necessary? Again, ask anyone who has worked in any sort of governmental agency and they’ll laugh as they regale you. (I still don’t know wether to laugh or cry at the guy who earned hundreds of thousands with the recommendation of “you should use this basic microsoft product.”)

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                        • M MyBrainHurts

                          Maybe re-read what you reaponded to?

                          It’s pretty nonsensical to claim that because you’re providing a public good you can’t do so more effectively.

                          K This user is from outside of this forum
                          K This user is from outside of this forum
                          Kindness is Punk
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #65

                          Nah I’m good dude, don’t have the energy, you can have this one.

                          M 1 Reply Last reply
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                          • K Kindness is Punk

                            Nah I’m good dude, don’t have the energy, you can have this one.

                            M This user is from outside of this forum
                            M This user is from outside of this forum
                            MyBrainHurts
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #66

                            Phew, I was thinking the same. I have no idea what you are trying to say.

                            Cheers.

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                            • R Rentlar

                              The theme seems to be “reduce operating spending, increase capital spending”. We’ll see how that will blow over with the opposition.

                              S This user is from outside of this forum
                              S This user is from outside of this forum
                              slartybartfast@sh.itjust.works
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #67

                              Awesome!

                              1 Reply Last reply
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                              • R Rentlar

                                The theme seems to be “reduce operating spending, increase capital spending”. We’ll see how that will blow over with the opposition.

                                I This user is from outside of this forum
                                I This user is from outside of this forum
                                immersivematthew@sh.itjust.works
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #68

                                Wow…that is roughly $2000 per Canadian.

                                1 Reply Last reply
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                                • R Rentlar

                                  The theme seems to be “reduce operating spending, increase capital spending”. We’ll see how that will blow over with the opposition.

                                  J This user is from outside of this forum
                                  J This user is from outside of this forum
                                  jhex@lemmy.world
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #69

                                  No more private planes tax, no more capital gains tax… middle and lower class Canadians to foot the bill for this “investment”

                                  This is trickle down economics with a tik tok song in the background

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                                  • M MyBrainHurts

                                    No, that’s not at all how that works.

                                    At all.

                                    P This user is from outside of this forum
                                    P This user is from outside of this forum
                                    patatas@sh.itjust.works
                                    wrote last edited by
                                    #70

                                    Sorry, but if the first claim is that government spending is inflationary, then there’s no way to claim that taxes aren’t disinflationary.

                                    M 1 Reply Last reply
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                                    • P patatas@sh.itjust.works

                                      Sorry, but if the first claim is that government spending is inflationary, then there’s no way to claim that taxes aren’t disinflationary.

                                      M This user is from outside of this forum
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                                      MyBrainHurts
                                      wrote last edited by
                                      #71

                                      Lol, wait, what?

                                      Just… Walk me through how you think this would work, say as Canada’s inflation rate hit 8% in summer 2022. Who would you have taxed, what would you have done with said taxes and why you think this would somehow lower inflation?

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                                      • M MyBrainHurts

                                        Lol, wait, what?

                                        Just… Walk me through how you think this would work, say as Canada’s inflation rate hit 8% in summer 2022. Who would you have taxed, what would you have done with said taxes and why you think this would somehow lower inflation?

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                                        P This user is from outside of this forum
                                        patatas@sh.itjust.works
                                        wrote last edited by
                                        #72

                                        Link Preview Image
                                        Ever heard of modern monetary theory?

                                        It’s a way of thinking about the economy. Picture a bathroom sink …

                                        favicon

                                        (www.marketplace.org)

                                        Really just linking this for the diagrams, which are the most succinct explanation for this that I know of - but this is the theoretical basis for what I am talking about

                                        M 1 Reply Last reply
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                                        • P patatas@sh.itjust.works

                                          Link Preview Image
                                          Ever heard of modern monetary theory?

                                          It’s a way of thinking about the economy. Picture a bathroom sink …

                                          favicon

                                          (www.marketplace.org)

                                          Really just linking this for the diagrams, which are the most succinct explanation for this that I know of - but this is the theoretical basis for what I am talking about

                                          M This user is from outside of this forum
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                                          MyBrainHurts
                                          wrote last edited by
                                          #73

                                          I get the misunderstanding now! I figured it was something similar to this, which is why I asked whom you would tax and what you would do with the taxes.

                                          So, a handful of things. First, this is a theory that is pretty much rejected by almost every mainstream economist (it’s rare you see both the Chicago school of economics and Paul Krugman on the same side but here we are.) You might take a quick google at Modern Monetary Theory critiques.

                                          But, ignoring that, if you dive into the theory a bit, you’ll see it doesn’t work as you’ve outlined. Looking back to your original point “Dollars are not scarce items; the government can issue currency essentially at will. Taxes aren’t there to fund services. They exist to reduce inequality.”

                                          In the MMT, taxes both fund services (say, the CERB) as well as help stabilize inflation. So, in your CERB example, sure, government prints a bunch of money which would cause inflation and then, you’re now saying the government should just tax it back to get to a neutral rate. Which, fine, tax the CERB back. But then what was the point of issuing it in the first place? If the answer is “well we just tax the rich” then what’s the point of printing a bunch of currency instead of just using the tax proceeds from the rich?

                                          To quote Kelton:

                                          That means the government then has to start slowing it’s rate of spending, or you can open up the drain and let some of those dollars out of the economy. And that’s what we do when we collect taxes.

                                          So, to stop the inflation caused by government spending on CERB, we just tax the money back and hold onto it (instead of using it on services, otherwise you’re back to the same inflationary pressures.) In essence, you’ve just changed all the programs from help to those who needed it, to a predatory loan.

                                          P 1 Reply Last reply
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