Come on guys...
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Before you roll any dice, the chances of rolling two nat 1s are 1/400. But after you roll your first die, whatever it happened to be, your chances of rolling a nat 1 are 1/20. The chances of the entire scenario have no impact on the probability of the individual rolls
@FearfulSalad @brian
The Gambler's Fallacy even shows up in humor.Hitchhiker: "thank you, but aren't you even a little worried picking up hitchhikers?"
Driver: "nah bro, the odds of a car having TWO serial killers is too tiny to worry about."
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The die need to warm up. I have to practice my release to make sure of a good number. Don’t take this from me.
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@FearfulSalad @brian
The Gambler's Fallacy even shows up in humor.Hitchhiker: "thank you, but aren't you even a little worried picking up hitchhikers?"
Driver: "nah bro, the odds of a car having TWO serial killers is too tiny to worry about."
My mother used to tell me there was always one weirdo on every bus. I couldn’t find them.
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No. You have a five percent chance of rolling any given number on any given roll on a twenty sided die.
A properly weighted die
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This kind of thinking is wasteful. Every d20 has a finite lifespan. It was created, and it will, at some time in the future be destroyed, as all things are. That means it has a finite number of rolls in its lifetime, with an equal distribution of all possible outcomes. When you “practice roll” and get a nat 20, you have wasted one of the limited number of nat 20s that die has in it. Think of the 20s. Don’t practice roll.
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How did you manage to spell the same word differently in the same sentence?
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This kind of thinking is wasteful. Every d20 has a finite lifespan. It was created, and it will, at some time in the future be destroyed, as all things are. That means it has a finite number of rolls in its lifetime, with an equal distribution of all possible outcomes. When you “practice roll” and get a nat 20, you have wasted one of the limited number of nat 20s that die has in it. Think of the 20s. Don’t practice roll.
On the contrary, it will not be the number of rolls that destroys it, but being thrown away. You should roll it as much as you can before then, any time spent not rolling is time wasted!
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How did you manage to spell the same word differently in the same sentence?
Ai probably
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This kind of thinking is wasteful. Every d20 has a finite lifespan. It was created, and it will, at some time in the future be destroyed, as all things are. That means it has a finite number of rolls in its lifetime, with an equal distribution of all possible outcomes. When you “practice roll” and get a nat 20, you have wasted one of the limited number of nat 20s that die has in it. Think of the 20s. Don’t practice roll.
This is like a common house fly worrying about the lifespan of Cthulhu.
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Before you roll any dice, the chances of rolling two nat 1s are 1/400. But after you roll your first die, whatever it happened to be, your chances of rolling a nat 1 are 1/20. The chances of the entire scenario have no impact on the probability of the individual rolls
Right but the way I took the meme was that you would roll until you get a 1, then deciding the next roll is the “real” one.
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Right but the way I took the meme was that you would roll until you get a 1, then deciding the next roll is the “real” one.
That’s what the meme says, but probability doesn’t work that way. If you want the result from a roll, what you’ve roller before has no bearing on the result from this roll. Thus the chance for a single d20 roll is always 1/20, or 5%.
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Monty Hall would love this guy
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This is like a common house fly worrying about the lifespan of Cthulhu.
You haven’t seen how some of the folks I play with roll.
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Monty Hall would love this guy
It literally doesn’t matter whether you stick with your door or switch.
Takes mathematical model and shoves it in the trash
No! I won’t listen! It doesn’t matter, I tell you!!!
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Ok. I know that this isn’t correct… But isn’t it?
If you’re having an unlimited number of rolls prior to your “real” roll, then you would be, in essence, creating a situation that has a statistically lower chance of happening.
If you’re having an unlimited number of rolls prior to your “real” roll
You’d end up with a perfectly smooth D20 which would never stop rolling, assuming it was rolled in a vacuum.
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No. You have a five percent chance of rolling any given number on any given roll on a twenty sided die.
Okay, normally, sure. But what if I cross my fingers and kick my heels and rub my lucky clover?
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It literally doesn’t matter whether you stick with your door or switch.
Takes mathematical model and shoves it in the trash
No! I won’t listen! It doesn’t matter, I tell you!!!
Man there’s something about the monty hall problem that just messes with human reasoning. I get it now and it’s really not even complicated at all but when you first learn about it you tend to overthink it. Now I don’t even understand how I was ever confused.
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It literally doesn’t matter whether you stick with your door or switch.
Takes mathematical model and shoves it in the trash
No! I won’t listen! It doesn’t matter, I tell you!!!
Are you being facetious, or do you want a non-mathematical explanation?
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You haven’t seen how some of the folks I play with roll.
i assume revenge for stepping on a d4 once?
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The trick is to say “this is just a practice roll” where the die can hear you, but wink at the GM so they know it’s the real roll. That way, the die will be a spiteful little punk and throw out the nat20 for the “practice”.
But don’t do that too often, or the die will figure out the trick.
